December 18 marks the beginning of Capital One Bowl Week and most wonderful time of the year. Bowl Season gets kicked off with the New Mexico, Humanitarian and New Orleans Bowl. We don't have big name programs with huge success stories playing today, but sometimes these games have the best finishes. Here's my picks for today and check out my Bowl Game Matchup Advantages for all the games.
New Mexico Bowl: BYU (6-6) vs. UTEP (6-6), 2pm on ESPN
It’s a wonder that BYU was able to make it to a 6-6 record and make a final appearance in the New Mexico Bowl before they leave the Mountain West Conference and become a football independent next season.
BYU started the season by beating Jake Locker and Washington, but lost then lost four straight to Air Force, Florida State, Nevada and Utah State. Look at those first five games though, BYU played arguably the nation’s strongest first half of the schedule. A lot was made of BYU winning four of its last five games to become bowl eligible but during that stretch they played the lower tier teams of the Mountain West with an exception of the one-point loss to Utah to end the season on a blocked extra point. The big game BYU had was against San Diego State back on Oct. 9 as that game ultimately decided their bowl fate. BYU was able to pull out a 24-21 win.
BYU true freshman quarterback, rated the No. 1 recruit by many scouting organizations, Jake Heaps has done a nice job of progressing throughout the season. During the BYU win streak, Heaps threw 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. His only bad game was to an elite TCU team and now Heaps will go against a UTEP defense that has at times been scorched in the passing game.
I’ve watched four BYU games and UTEP only twice this year so don’t have a lot on these teams, but UTEP has lost five of its last six games to finish the season and quarterback Trevor Vittatoe hasn’t put up the numbers that were expected as he’s been fairly inconsistent. Depending on which Vittatoe we get in this bowl game will determine who the better quarterback in this game is. If it’s the old Vittatoe and also if UTEP can bring back injured running back Donald Buckram, the Miners will have a chance to win.
The BYU defense will be tough. Before the win streak, BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall took over the duties of defensive coordinator and the Cougars have only allowed 271 yards per game since with losses only to TCU and Utah.
Prediction: BYU 34, UTEP 17
Players to watch: BYU QB Jake Heaps; UTEP RB Donald Buckram
uDrove Humanitarian Bowl: Northern Illinois (10-3) vs. Fresno State (8-4), 5:30pm on ESPN
This game was an epic one last year between Bowling Green representing the MAC and Idaho representing the WAC. This time in 2010 neither one of those teams are bowl eligible.
Fresno State is fresh off its win over Illinois while Northern Illinois went undefeated in conference play but had its nine game win streak snapped in the MAC Championship Game against Miami (OH). With that 26-21 loss, the Huskies find themselves playing in Boise, Idaho instead of the more recognized GoDaddy.com, Little Caesars, or New Orleans Bowls that hold MAC affiliations. Not every year that you see a team go undefeated in conference play and get relegated to the conference’s lowest bowl game.
Here’s an interesting stat for you though: Fresno State is 4-1 in bowl games against schools from one of the six BCS power conferences, but the Bulldogs are 0-5, yes 0-5 in bowl games against schools from non-AQ conferences. I expect this trend to continue.
Northern Illinois has one of my favorite players in junior quarterback Chandler Harnish who did all he could to win the MAC title with three touchdown passes in that game, but star running back, sophomore Chad Spann was shut down after rushing for 1,293 yards this season. Harnish finished the year with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions and 764 yards rushing.
Northern Illinois did lose head coach Jerry Kill to Minnesota and Kill took a lot of the Huskies’ staff with him. That forced Northern Illinois to name linebackers coach Tom Matukewicz as the interim coach and it was announced that he will be retained by new head coach Dave Doeren who comes from Wisconsin.
One thing you always notice is how players respond to interim coaches and they always play so much harder and in my eyes, the fact that Coach Matukewicz is being retained has to give the players more motivation to play for him because he’ll still be with them next year. Note the consequences next year if the players don’t give it their all in this game.
I’ve seen Fresno State play six times this year while seeing five Northern Illinois games. Fresno State is a very solid football team: good defensively, great senior leadership from quarterback Ryan Colburn and have a star back of their own in sophomore Robbie Rouse, but I like the firepower for Northern Illinois with Harnish, Spann and Martel Moore.
Prediction: Northern Illinois 33, Fresno State 28
Players to watch: NIU QB Chandler Harnish; Fresno RB Robbie Rouse
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Ohio (8-4) vs. Troy (7-5), 9:00pm on ESPN
Ohio has never won a bowl game. They had their chance at a MAC title as well with a seven game win streak before being absolutely shut down in the 28-6 loss to Kent State to end the season. Ohio quarterback Boo Jackson has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and the Ohio running game has been so inconsistent with Vince Davidson and Phil Bates.
Ohio’s offense is best when it has a 100-yard rusher which has happened only three times this year while scoring 31 against Temple, 49 against Bowling Green and 34 in a win against MAC Champion Miami of Ohio.
Troy comes in as the only Sun Belt conference team with a winning record even though they didn’t win the Sun Belt title with Florida International winning the tiebreaker while having a 6-6 total record.
Troy’s defense has been suspect, they gave up 52 points in that loss to FIU.
Troy has lost its last two bowl games in overtime and had a classic game last year against Dan LeFevour and Central Michigan. Both quarterbacks from that game, LeFevour and former-Troy QB Levi Brown are now in the NFL.
Troy has replaced Brown with redshirt freshman Corey Robinson who I have been very impressed with. His best performance came early against Oklahoma State when he went 28-38 for 272 yards and three touchdowns. I watched Robinson and Troy in that game and two others when Robinson went 26-37 for 259 yards and three touchdowns against Middle Tennessee and also when the Trojans took on South Carolina.
Last year Central Michigan receiver Antonio Brown and Troy receiver Jerrel Jernigan put on a show in this game. Brown is now with the Pittsburgh Steelers while Jernigan returned for his senior year. His yardage was down but overall production was not. Jernigan is an explosive playmaker and scored touchdowns this season five different ways: rushing, receiving, passing, punt returning and kick returning.
The interesting stat here is that Troy and Ohio have two common opponents: Bowling Green and Lafayette. Ohio beat those teams by a combined 31 points while Troy won by a combined 10 points.
It’s not indicative of how this game will play out, but it’s the best way to directly compare the two teams, but an even better comparison will come out tonight on the field.
Prediction: Troy 31, Ohio 20
Players to watch: Troy WR Jerrel Jernigan; Ohio LB Noah Keller
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