Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Evaluating the Final USA Today Coaches' Poll

So I've been a tad busy the past few weeks with a lot going on, but remember the big fuss last week over the BCS computer glitch that forced Boise State and LSU and Alabama and Nebraska to be swapped in the BCS Standings? There was a column posted by Sports Illustrated that reminded us all that the glitch wouldn't have been that big of a deal if the human voters (the coaches and Harris Poll voters) just did their jobs, objectively.

I know what some of you are thinking already: that I am so biased towards Texas. That's not true, did all of you forget last year already when I had Alabama No. 1, TCU No. 2, and Texas No. 3 when I could have had a valid argument of putting Texas No. 1.

Anyway, I finally got a chance to look at how the 59 coaches associated with the USA Today Coaches' Poll voted. There are some major problems that computers can't fix: human bias.

The big deal is near the end where it gets good.

The top five in the BCS are: 1. Auburn 2. Oregon 3. TCU 4. Stanford 5. Wisconsin
Top five in the Coaches' Poll: 1. Oregon 2. Auburn 3. TCU 4. Wisconsin 5. Stanford
My Top Five: 1. Auburn 2. Oregon 3. WIsconsin 4. TCU 5. Stanford

Not a whole lot of problems there.

But when you break down who ranked who where...

Oregon received 34 No. 1 votes. Auburn received 24. TCU received one. I'm sorry at this point in the season, there should be no reason for TCU to be getting any No. 1 votes. Who gave that No. 1 vote to TCU? Idaho coach Robb Akey.

TCU's lowest ranking was No. 6 by Illinois coach Ron Zook. TCU was No. 1 by Akey and No. 2 by New Mexico coach Mike Locksley and Utah coach Kyle Whittingham. Giving the non-AQ's some love.

Oregon's lowest ranking was No. 2 while Auburn's was No. 3. After Auburn beat Alabama after being behind 24-0, I put the Tigers No. 1 in my rankings. Nick Saban on the other hand, who got to see his 24-0 lead get erased in person, did not. Saban kept Alabama at No. 2, that's a rivalry for you. While Steve Spurrier watched Auburn beat his own team in the SEC Championship Game 56-17, Spurrier has Auburn No. 1. Spurrier is nothing but pure class, I have to love the guy and honestly, Spurrier's Top 25 most resembles my Top 25 and I like to think that my Top 25 is the most objective.

The big deal was Boise State being No. 11 when they should have been No. 10 because of that computer glitch. That glitch has since been fixed and Boise State is now a Top 10 team. But again, Boise State should have been there anyway if not for the agendas of certain coaches: ahem, Mike Locksley who voted the Broncos at No. 16. Bobby Petrino had Boise State at No. 15. Robb Akey, a member of that fierce Boise State-Idaho rivalry, had the Broncos at No. 14. Boise State's highest rating came from Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo who ranked the Broncos No. 7. Boise State coach Chris Petersen put his own team at No. 10 but also has Nevada at No. 9 just ahead of them. Now Nevada is no where near a Top 10 team, but you have to understand that Petersen had no choice.

Speaking of Nevada, Mike MacIntyre of San Jose State has the Wolfpack at No. 8. I just said Nevada's not a top ten team. Six of the coaches have Nevada in the Top 10. Among them, two other WAC coaches and surprisingly Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema and Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh.

But honestly Coach MacIntyre? Boise State beat you 48-0 and your team has one win against an FCS school. At least you put up 13 points against Nevada. Against Boise State, you had the ball in plus territory twice. Tell me which team is better.

If you would have voted Boise State ahead of Nevada, you wouldn't have been seen as biased, you would have been seen as a regular informed voter. The only guy who was in a tough situation on where to put Nevada was Chris Petersen. Not you.

23 other coaches left Boise State out of the top ten. That hurts.

But wait for it...Mike Locksley voted Hawaii at No. 18 to give the Warriors its highest ranking from the coaches, although the final compilation put Hawaii at No. 25. Does Locksley know what he's doing? Boise State at No. 16 and Hawaii at No. 18? Really? That same Hawaii team that 25 other coaches left completely off their ballots and that same Boise State team that beat Wyoming 51-6, Wyoming being the ONLY team that your team beat. Boise State beat every other team they played that beat you just as badly. Just wait Mr. Locksley, you'll get your own taste of Boise State next year in the Mountain West Conference.

Honestly, though. If anyone's coaching ballot is messed up it's Locksley's. Nevada at No. 11 ahead of Missouri and LSU, Boise State at No. 16, Hawaii at No. 18, giving Mississippi State it's second highest ranking at No. 19 and having Alabama down at No. 23. Don't forget he was one of the guys that put TCU at No. 2.

Anyway, some more quick thoughts before I leave you.

Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Virginia Tech were the most scattered. Jim Harbaugh had Oklahoma at No. 5. Not sure why. Nebraska had the biggest spread from No. 8 to No. 21. That 21 is from Mike Locksley by the way.

Maryland hasn't been getting any kind of respect all year from the voters, but then again look at the schedule they played. Maryland did break through at the end by beating a good North Carolina State team to prevent them from an ACC Championship Game performance, and I was at the Maryland-Florida State game and the Terps hung in there until the end. I was impressed.

Maryland was not able to crack the Top 25, but did receive votes from ten of the coaches and here's the interesting part: Frank Beamer of Virginia Tech, Dave Cutcliffe of Duke and Jim Grobe of Wake Forest, the only ACC voters, all had Maryland in. Four of the other coaches to vote for Maryland are from Non-AQ conferences.

Another team that got surprising respect was the Redhawks of Miami (OH) after beating Northern Illinois in the MAC Title Game. Miami coach Mike Haywood did not put his own team in his Top 25, but Robb Akey, Bret Bielema, Urban Meyer of Florida, Larry Porter of Louisiana Tech and Kevin Sumlin of Houston did.

So here's where it gets good. It's always interesting to see where coaches rank their own teams.

Let's start with NC State head coach Tom O'Brien who ranked his own team at No. 24. After they lost to Maryland. And even before losing to Maryland, NC State wasn't ranked. Uh... yeah I don't have an explanation for that.

Time to pose a question. How painful do you think it was for Nick Saban to put Alabama at No. 15 on his ballot? It's fair though. You know Saban wanted to put his team in the Top 5 but No. 15 is fair even though Alabama's final ranking came out to be 18.

Again, New Mexico coach Mike Locksley had no problem putting Alabama at No. 23. Behind Utah, Hawaii, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Nebraska, and Central Florida. Really Coach Locksley? You don't think Alabama could beat any of those teams? At least he has the Crimson Tide ahead of South Carolina where he put No. 24...you know, despite South Carolina beating Alabama 35-21 earlier this season. No big deal.

Other coaches that have their own teams the highest rankings were Dan Mullen putting No. 22 Mississippi State at No. 16. George O'Leary put Central Florida at No. 19. And here's the good one: Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher put Florida State at No. 19. Yep, he moved them up after losing big to Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game. I guess he thought that if Christian Ponder would have played they would have won for sure.

Now let's move the focus towards the top. Gary Pinkel of Missouri put his own team at No. 11. Missouri came out at No. 14, I can accept what Coach Pinkel did.

But I can't accept this one: Nebraska coach Bo Pelini put his own 16th-ranked Nebraska team at No. 8. Yeah, No. 8 in the top ten. Pelini's the only guy to put Nebraska higher than 12.

Others to note are Jim Harbaugh put Stanford at No. 3 and Mark Dantonio put Michigan State at No. 4. Dantonio voted Ohio State at No. 5 and Wisconsin at No. 6. His team beat Wisconsin, but Wisconsin beat Ohio State. And Dantonio thinks he can beat the Buckeyes, too. Sorry, I don't think so.

So that does it with my edition of why the human voters are corrupt. Don't get me wrong though, let me put this disclaimer out there: I respect many of these coaches except Mike Locksley. Jimbo Fisher especially was very gracious with his time when I had the chance to meet him. I have a lot of respect for the Dantonio's and Whittingham's and many coaches in between.

But when it comes down to business of doing what's best for your team, judgments get clouded. The Coaches' Poll is one proof of that.

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